PMIs & Cyclical Rotation Strategy
Welcome to The Observatory. The Observatory is how we at Prometheus monitor the evolution of the economy and financial markets in real-time. The insights provided here are slivers of our research process that are integrated algorithmically into our systems to create rules-based portfolios.
Today, we received new PMI data, which feeds into our PMI composite, whose readings continue to show a weak environment for growth assets (stocks, commodities, & high yield credit).
As of the latest available data, our PMI composite now shows a reading of -10.62. This was a sequential deceleration from one month prior and a decline in the three-month trend. PMIs are generally strong directional indicators of where we are in the profit cycle, as PMI respondents manage inventories and orders in response to their outlook on revenue and profitability. Below, we offer the latest readings of our PMI Composite, which offers us a sense of the pressures on profitability:
PMI indicators are typically biased toward the manufacturing sector. While this does indeed make sense since production is largely driven by the manufacturing sector, we think it is important to also separate these sub-indexes to understand the pervasiveness of the current trend in PMIs. Currently, our Manufacturing and Services composites are sow readings of -14.2 & -4.35, respectively, signaling consistency within the current trend:
More specifically, we received data from Richmond & Philadelphia Manufacturing PMIs; we discuss these next.
The latest Richmond Fed manufacturing survey data showed a contractionary reading of -15, disappointing consensus expectations of -8. This reading was a sequential deceleration within a decelerating trend. The largest gaining segment was Employees, and the largest slowdown was in New Orders:
While Richmond Fed showed sequential softening, Philadelphia Fed PMIs showed sequential improvement. The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey data showed a contractionary reading of -10.4, up from the prior reading of -31.3. This reading was a sequential acceleration within an accelerating trend.
The largest gaining segment was Unfilled Orders, and the largest slowdown was in Prices Received. Zooming out, we think it is important to note that PMIs have generally been weak, though ISM and S&P Services PMIs have remained. We show some of the major PMI indices below:
S&P Services has been the strongest of the PMIs, while Empire State Mfg has been the weakest. While services PMIs have shown some resilience, we think it is important to note that the trend in PMI remains lower and cyclical conditions continue to weaken. These conditions do not support taking on medium-term equity risk, despite recent trends in markets. To illustrate this concept, we show a simple cyclical rotation strategy that leverages our understanding of cyclical conditions to choose between equities and cash. When cyclical conditions are likely to deteriorate, it switches into cash; if not, it stays long the S&P 500:
As we can see above, this strategy has outperformed equity markets significantly while offering much lower drawdowns. This strategy can be applied in a long/short fashion as well, but we wanted to convey our view as simply as possible: it is not an ideal time to take on equity risk unless you have the ability to change positions on a week-to-week basis. Data will likely continue to deteriorate, and this strategy remains in cash until it improves. Until next time.
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But can we really simulate the world itself?
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It closed the settlement gap between the Wiehre and Littenweiler, and connected with Freiburg’s city centre.
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A more streamlined pale green fastback sedan with hidden front wheels was advertised “for winter touring.” While the beige-and-maroon, long-deck, four-window sedan “for rapid travel” brought to mind a zeppelin, the four-window sedan with rear suicide doors echoed a Hooper-bodied Rolls-Royce in its black and dark blue livery.
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In: NNU 41 (1972), p.
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This uncommon automobile hit an insane top velocity of greater than 250 mph again in 2007, however production of the model stopped in 2013.
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That pitcher is then awarded a shutout, though not a whole sport.
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Partially, this is because so many regular Navy activities take place inside ships.
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Such discrimination has imposed vital economic prices, studying disruption, and denial of financial opportunities for individuals of coloration.
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Simple spreads can be set up to ensure some profit no matter which way the market moves after you enter.
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A board, be it in large conglomerates or large state owned enterprises (and government departments), set’s direction for the organization and decide on the strategy that would get them to the winning line.
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If you are more guided by technical analysis, then look for the good opportunities based on the latest technical outlook.
Bordentown City’s one sq.
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Elmo got his huge break when “Sesame Street” producers decided they needed a crimson monster on the set.
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The minimum tick is 10 cents.
Moreover, the Chinese language authorities will revise related regulations to permit overseas traders to hold no more than 49 p.c of shares in a joint-venture security firm.
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Barr won the celebration’s nomination after six rounds of balloting on the 2008 Libertarian Occasion Nationwide Convention.
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Commander Geoffrey Ronald Bartlett.
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It also well-known for its educational institutions, even with all the industrial and technological growth, its traditions and old customs are still considered in high esteem.
Investigations into the unregulated oil futures exchanges turned up major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.
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The final word owner known as the useful proprietor.
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Tenure of such funding is 8 years.
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Of this $2.7 trillion, retail money market funds had $940 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM).
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Charts with all updates 2009-current are marked (Full).
Equity is the difference between assets and liabilities.
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Number built: 60,000 (approx.
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This page was last edited on 23 February 2024, at 05:54 (UTC).
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