Last week we saw significant moves in markets. Equities and treasuries were down significantly, while commodities and the dollar rallied. These moves reflect the fundamental dynamics of heightened inflation, weakening growth, tightening liquidity, and market regime pricing for stagflationary nominal growth. These market moves came from weaker than expected…

Our systematic tracking of economic and financial conditions paints a bleak picture for US equities. Commodity strength remains unrelenting in aggregate; however, we see areas of the commodity complex begin to weaken. Nonetheless, the fundamental backdrop remains where the growth impulse is negative, and inflation remains resiliently high. Markets…

Markets will be closed tomorrow in the US on account of Memorial Day, but we will provide our guidance for the rest of the week. Despite last week’s bounce in equity markets, our systematic process tells us we are in a stagflationary regime that remains unfriendly to both equities….

Our systematic tracking of economic conditions paints a picture of stagflation alongside tightening liquidity conditions. Markets mirror this dynamic, pricing strong and inflationary nominal growth and tightening liquidity. Last week, Equities continued their descent while Commodities further extended their rally. We show our Market Regime monitor heading into next…

Week 18 2022 proved challenging for Equities and Fixed Income, both finishing the week in the red. Our Alpha Strategy fared well in this context, ending the week flat. Our positions in Commodities performed strongly; however, our Gold exposures dragged on the portfolio. Our hit remained level, holding at…

Last week, our Alpha Strategy suffered losses as market moves turned against our Equity, Commodity & FX exposures. This came from a decline in our hit ratios, holding at 53% over the last 12-months. The last two weeks have shown the potential for a regime shift, which our systems…