This report is part of our ongoing effort to provide economic and market guidance to our subscribers during a period of historic levels of uncertainty. This note aims to share our research team’s internal checkpoint process in evaluating the current state of the economy as it pertains to markets. The pages that follow will have familiar content for those who follow our work but with the added benefit of our connecting the dots across all the economic and financial data our systems use to make portfolio decisions. This report will focus on the economy; future issues will include our market analysis. Our key takeaways are as follows:
We remain on a path towards contracting real economic growth amidst high inflation, i.e., stagflation.
The next shoe to drop on the path toward stagflation is likely lower production; we continue to monitor these developments carefully.
The Fed is tightening liquidity conditions and may likely have to go further than most expect to break inflation. Conditions remain bleak for asset markets.
In the report attached below, we discuss all of this and more in detail. If you enjoyed this report, please comment, like and share. Until next time. Stay nimble.