We’re back with Episode 6 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have another fantastic guest for you- Eric Basmajian. Eric is the founder of EPB Macro- a macro research firm focused on economic cycle analysis. Eric has an excellent mechanistic understanding of the economy and applies a data-driven approach to forecasting the economic cycle. Anyone interested in macro forecasting will have something to learn from this episode. In the episode, Aahan & Eric take the listener on a journey deep into understanding economic cycles and what that understanding brings to light in today’s context. If you ever wanted to understand how economic cycles unfold or where we are in the current cycle— this episode is for you!
Find the show notes below:
(00:00 – 55:00) Mechanics: Framework Overview, Secular Growth Drivers, Debt & Productivity, Cycle Causality, Leading Indicator Framework, Indicator Durability & Persistence, Asset Allocation Tilts & Alpha Overlay
(55:00 – 1:29:00) Macro: Current Backdrop, The Lack Of A Virtuous Cycle Turns Into Viscious Downturn, “Artificial” Production Strength, Growth Dependance On Lagging Indicators, The Fed Could Go Too Fast, Potential Policy Errors Leading To Stagflation
(1:29:00-1:35:00) Markets: Nominal Growth Priced Too High, Stocks vs. Bonds.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!