Welcome to The Observatory. The Observatory is how we at Prometheus monitor the evolution of the economy and financial markets in real-time. The insights provided here are slivers of our research process that are integrated algorithmically into our systems to create rules-based portfolios.
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Our primary takeaways are as follows:
● The latest business sales and inventory data surprised consensus expectations, further contributing to resilient nominal activity. Total manufacturing & trade sales are now rising modestly versus one year prior.
● Nominal spending remains resilient, and because nominal spending pays for wages,
employment has also remained resilient. Until spending durably and meaningfully contracts, we are unlikely to see a contraction in employment.
● Resilient nominal GDP remains incongruent with the current shape of the yield curve, which will likely favour further bear steepening of the curve
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