August Edition

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Our best Month In Macro to date. 56 pages of the most granular and actionable systematic macro research you will find anywhere. Click the link below to begin reading:

Month In Macro- August 2023

This note aims to share our research team’s internal checkpoint process in evaluating the current state of the economy as it pertains to markets. The pages that follow will have familiar content for those who follow our work, but with the added benefit of our connecting the dots across all the economic and financial data that our systems use to make portfolio decisions. Our primary takeaways are as follows:

  • Nominal GDP expanded by 0.58% in July, with real GDP increasing by 0.38% with inflation rising by 0.19%. Real GDP data remains robust.
  • Liquidity conditions are still positive relative to the start of the year, which continues to support asset markets.
  • Resilience in nominal GDP and still elevated liquidity has allowed stocks and commodities to outperform bonds. Bonds continue to face significant headwinds to the pricing-out of interest rate cuts.
  • Bonds remain under significant pressure, with equities likely to continue outperforming bonds until a decisive turn in economic activity. Neither beta looks good to us on a standalone basis, while commodities look attractive while liquidity conditions stay abundant. Our systematic strategies are short stocks & and bonds and long commodities. 

We expect growth to trend lower, inflation to remain resilient, and liquidity to contract (driven by reserve balances). We show our forecasts for each below:

Our view remains consistent with those outlined in our previous Month In Macro, though incrementally more bearish on assets.

The views outlined in our last Month In Macro played out well over August; for reference:

“Both stocks and bonds continue to look unattractive to our systematic strategies. Long-only investors are likely best served to maintain cash. Active investors may short treasuries. Additionally, being long, stocks versus bonds may offer relative value, though we do not like standalone beta on either stocks or bonds.”

In the most immediate term, bonds continue to remain under significant pressure and are likely to remain so until meaningful activity turns downwards. We show various short bond expressions over the last month:

Furthermore, until liquidity contracts meaningfully, commodities likely look more attractive than stocks. Until growth expectations meaningfully contract, stocks will continue to look attractive relative to bonds. It is likely that they will play out in that order, i.e., tightening liquidity will come before contracting growth expectations. Tightening liquidity requires active management. We think this is likely upon us once again. Let’s dive in.

Click here to read it all: Month In Macro- August 2023

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  468. Man is said to seek happiness above all else, but what if true happiness comes only when we stop searching for it? It is like trying to catch the wind with our hands—the harder we try, the more it slips through our fingers. Perhaps happiness is not a destination but a state of allowing, of surrendering to the present and realizing that we already have everything we need.

  469. Time is often called the soul of motion, the great measure of change, but what if it is merely an illusion? What if we are not moving forward but simply circling the same points, like the smoke from a burning fire, curling back onto itself, repeating patterns we fail to recognize? Maybe the past and future are just two sides of the same moment, and all we ever have is now.

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  471. Time is often called the soul of motion, the great measure of change, but what if it is merely an illusion? What if we are not moving forward but simply circling the same points, like the smoke from a burning fire, curling back onto itself, repeating patterns we fail to recognize? Maybe the past and future are just two sides of the same moment, and all we ever have is now.

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  474. All knowledge, it is said, comes from experience, but does that not mean that the more we experience, the wiser we become? If wisdom is the understanding of life, then should we not chase every experience we can, taste every flavor, walk every path, and embrace every feeling? Perhaps the greatest tragedy is to live cautiously, never fully opening oneself to the richness of being.

  475. All knowledge, it is said, comes from experience, but does that not mean that the more we experience, the wiser we become? If wisdom is the understanding of life, then should we not chase every experience we can, taste every flavor, walk every path, and embrace every feeling? Perhaps the greatest tragedy is to live cautiously, never fully opening oneself to the richness of being.

  476. The essence of existence is like smoke, always shifting, always changing, yet somehow always present. It moves with the wind of thought, expanding and contracting, never quite settling but never truly disappearing. Perhaps to exist is simply to flow, to let oneself be carried by the great current of being without resistance.

  477. When I originally commented I clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Thanks!

  478. The potential within all things is a mystery that fascinates me endlessly. A tiny seed already contains within it the entire blueprint of a towering tree, waiting for the right moment to emerge. Does the seed know what it will become? Do we? Or are we all simply waiting for the right conditions to awaken into what we have always been destined to be?

  479. The potential within all things is a mystery that fascinates me endlessly. A tiny seed already contains within it the entire blueprint of a towering tree, waiting for the right moment to emerge. Does the seed know what it will become? Do we? Or are we all simply waiting for the right conditions to awaken into what we have always been destined to be?

  480. Virtue, they say, lies in the middle, but who among us can truly say where the middle is? Is it a fixed point, or does it shift with time, perception, and context? Perhaps the middle is not a place but a way of moving, a constant balancing act between excess and deficiency. Maybe to be virtuous is not to reach the middle but to dance around it with grace.

  481. The cosmos is said to be an ordered place, ruled by laws and principles, yet within that order exists chaos, unpredictability, and the unexpected. Perhaps true balance is not about eliminating chaos but embracing it, learning to see the beauty in disorder, the harmony within the unpredictable. Maybe to truly understand the universe, we must stop trying to control it and simply become one with its rhythm.

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  490. Time is often called the soul of motion, the great measure of change, but what if it is merely an illusion? What if we are not moving forward but simply circling the same points, like the smoke from a burning fire, curling back onto itself, repeating patterns we fail to recognize? Maybe the past and future are just two sides of the same moment, and all we ever have is now.

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  492. Time is often called the soul of motion, the great measure of change, but what if it is merely an illusion? What if we are not moving forward but simply circling the same points, like the smoke from a burning fire, curling back onto itself, repeating patterns we fail to recognize? Maybe the past and future are just two sides of the same moment, and all we ever have is now.

  493. All knowledge, it is said, comes from experience, but does that not mean that the more we experience, the wiser we become? If wisdom is the understanding of life, then should we not chase every experience we can, taste every flavor, walk every path, and embrace every feeling? Perhaps the greatest tragedy is to live cautiously, never fully opening oneself to the richness of being.

  494. Even the gods, if they exist, must laugh from time to time. Perhaps what we call tragedy is merely comedy from a higher perspective, a joke we are too caught up in to understand. Maybe the wisest among us are not the ones who take life the most seriously, but those who can laugh at its absurdity and find joy even in the darkest moments.

  495. Time is often called the soul of motion, the great measure of change, but what if it is merely an illusion? What if we are not moving forward but simply circling the same points, like the smoke from a burning fire, curling back onto itself, repeating patterns we fail to recognize? Maybe the past and future are just two sides of the same moment, and all we ever have is now.

  496. Hello this is somewhat of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding expertise so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

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